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Post by Cousin Larry on Sept 29, 2016 12:45:46 GMT -5
Being a fan of math, I created a formula that I applied to all 14 teams to create a power ranking. The formula takes the average rank of each team's top 11 players (corresponds with the number of active roster spots on our teams) and gives is a 2x weighting. The average ranks for each team's next 5 players is then calculated and given a 1x weighting. The 16th/17th roster spots are ignored, as most of us have rookies stashed that will not be used much, if at all, or injured players who won't contribute (or will take an active player's roster spot when they get healthy). Without further ado, here is the output:
14. Pink Beards - 166 13. Dire Wolves - 161 12. Schwidawg - 154 11. Sultans of Swish - 150 10. Gbmb34 - 146 9. UA - 139 8. PM - 130 7. Balki - 130 6. Spurs Champs - 126 5. Imaginarium - 126 4. Cam2Win - 122 3. Clutch - 121 2. Budge - 101 1. Digital Fool - 79
Yes, I double-checked my calculations when I saw DF ahead by such a ridiculous margin. But he has 12 players in the top 100 - three teams are tied for second place with 9 players in the top 100. Looks like we've got a new rabbit to chase this year, fellas. |
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Post by cam2win on Sept 29, 2016 13:07:35 GMT -5
What a super fun concept to read over lunch!! Thanks for putting this together and love the math behind the formula. Obviously ranks are always debatable but that would be the case no matter who provided ranks (Yahoo or anyone else).
I thought DF was a sneaky title contender last season and thought he had a great offseason. Budge's roster is loaded and we are all chasing that trophy Clutch won last year. Hard to argue much with any of those 3 in the top group.
I drafted my team last year with the thought by year 3 I wanted to contend. Despite the bonehead move of Jokic, i stuck with my plan (which is a shock as i have a reputation in fantasy leagues of not being patient). Not sure i'm worthy of spot 4 but i thought i'd have a playoff shot this year after finishing 12th last year.
Thanks for doing this, curious how this evolves over the season
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Post by Cousin Larry on Sept 29, 2016 14:28:54 GMT -5
Yeah, this confirms my worst fear. I'm looking like a bubble playoff team and I can't figure out which direction I need to go. If Holiday and Middleton are healthy, both become top-50 assets and I jump into the 3-5 range. But as it is, I'm right outside the playoffs. That probably means I need to be patient and build for the next couple years. But I will let things develop and see.
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Reavers
1x Champion (2013 SL) 
Things are looking Grim for you
Posts: 3,223
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Post by Reavers on Sept 29, 2016 15:06:30 GMT -5
Moving up, woot!
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spurs champs
3x Champion (2014 SL, 2012 & 2013 KL)
Go Spurs
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Post by spurs champs on Sept 29, 2016 16:14:40 GMT -5
I think this is great and waiting for someone to do it. I am also surprised how high I rank and how low wolves is. Several teams fall between 121 and 130.
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Post by Cousin Larry on Sept 30, 2016 8:25:06 GMT -5
One flaw in my methodology: it doesn't take into account a team's balance. You could have highly rated guys like Deandre Jordan and Andre Drummond and have high scores, but lose FT% and 3PTM every week. I think that probably explains how Clutch could win the league, but fall third in this ranking system. I just thought it would be a fun and fairly simple way to analyze things. Actually, I was just trying to determine if I should buy or sell over the lunch hour yesterday. When I saw the results, I figured I would share and hopefully get some banter going.
The thing that's hurting Wolves is that he has 10 rookies and first-year players. Yahoo always ranks them lower than is warranted. My methodology ignores Abrines and his 611 ranking, but then you take players like Sabonis at 562, Dekker at 472, and Oubre at 381 and your score increases in a hurry. It's a high-risk, high-reward strategy. He's a good evaluator of talent, so I expect he will find a couple gems and finish higher than these projections would indicate.
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spurs champs
3x Champion (2014 SL, 2012 & 2013 KL)
Go Spurs
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Post by spurs champs on Sept 30, 2016 9:07:59 GMT -5
I like your system none is going to accurately predict who will win as you still have injuries and bad weeks that are hard to factor in.
As far as Wolves I have him making the playoffs and being a solid team for years to come. Eventually he will have to go away from trying to develop talent and try to start winning it all and when he does that He will be solid.
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Reavers
1x Champion (2013 SL)
Things are looking Grim for you
Posts: 3,223
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Post by Reavers on Sept 30, 2016 9:46:27 GMT -5
Most players hit their prime at around age 27 and my guys are 19-22 so I've got a little ways to go
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Post by cam2win on Sept 30, 2016 11:33:21 GMT -5
My guess is Wolves would prefer to not make the playoffs this year honestly. He's got the structure of a team that can dominate this league in a few years and another top 5 pick for a year or even 2 sets him up even better. I have him finishing in the 10-12 range and my guess is he might be ok with that for another year. Heck, 14th didn't get him pick 1, so maybe 11th will......
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Post by Cousin Larry on Sept 30, 2016 11:57:20 GMT -5
Most players hit their prime at around age 27 and my guys are 19-22 so I've got a little ways to go I same boat. Even with Melo on my roster, the average age is 22. I'll race you to the bottom, Reavers. |
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Reavers
1x Champion (2013 SL)
Things are looking Grim for you
Posts: 3,223
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Post by Reavers on Sept 30, 2016 13:44:35 GMT -5
My guess is Wolves would prefer to not make the playoffs this year honestly. He's got the structure of a team that can dominate this league in a few years and another top 5 pick for a year or even 2 sets him up even better. I have him finishing in the 10-12 range and my guess is he might be ok with that for another year. Heck, 14th didn't get him pick 1, so maybe 11th will...... if i do get in the playoffs this year i'd be pretty happy because my team would be exceeding expectations, but realistically I'm more hoping for 2/3 of my players to be starters by the end of the season so I can start looking at their stats and formulate a little bit of balancing the roster. I wasnt expecting Frazier or Warren to be in the hunt to be an opening day starter which could give me a nice bump early |
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ua
2x Champion (2014 & 2015 KL)
Manager
2014 3NC Dynasty Champion
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Post by ua on Oct 4, 2016 6:17:49 GMT -5
I count 14 players on my roster that should see statistical improvements over last year so I fully expect to outperform that ranking, but until those players prove me right I think that ranking is fair. My team however does face some unexpected headwinds… I shot myself in the foot when I traded Jimmy Butler to get Ben Simmons who is now likely injured for the season, but on the bright side when I don't win the championship this year I won't have to wonder where I went wrong. Never underestimate how much God hates the Philadelphia 76ers. Lesson learned. Also on the bright side, since I am much less likely to make the playoffs now my draft picks for next season have now increased in value. So that's something.
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Post by cam2win on Oct 4, 2016 11:49:23 GMT -5
I shot myself in the foot when I traded Jimmy Butler to get Ben Simmons who is now likely injured for the season I'm pretty sure you just admitted you are Ben Simmons and revealed how you really "broke" your foot.... |
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ua
2x Champion (2014 & 2015 KL)
Manager
2014 3NC Dynasty Champion
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Post by ua on Oct 4, 2016 14:34:23 GMT -5
Believe it or not I did put a few minutes of thought into trying to come up with something clever to say about that shot in the foot and Ben Simmons thing. I'll be fine once I stop enriching the world with my stupid decisions and self inflicted wounds. Earlier this year already shot myself in the ass giving up on Whiteside too soon. I think I kind of inadvertently screwed this team up and part of me is thinking I should maybe blow it up and start from scratch. I guess I'll see how the season unfolds, but at this point I'm just one more injury away from being in the lottery. And I probably shouldn't be allowed to own a firearm.
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spurs champs
3x Champion (2014 SL, 2012 & 2013 KL)
Go Spurs
Posts: 2,637
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Post by spurs champs on Oct 26, 2016 22:07:51 GMT -5
Being a fan of math, I created a formula that I applied to all 14 teams to create a power ranking. The formula takes the average rank of each team's top 11 players (corresponds with the number of active roster spots on our teams) and gives is a 2x weighting. The average ranks for each team's next 5 players is then calculated and given a 1x weighting. The 16th/17th roster spots are ignored, as most of us have rookies stashed that will not be used much, if at all, or injured players who won't contribute (or will take an active player's roster spot when they get healthy). Without further ado, here is the output:
14. Pink Beards - 166 13. Dire Wolves - 161 12. Schwidawg - 154 11. Sultans of Swish - 150 10. Gbmb34 - 146 9. UA - 139 8. PM - 130 7. Balki - 130 6. Spurs Champs - 126 5. Imaginarium - 126 4. Cam2Win - 122 3. Clutch - 121 2. Budge - 101 1. Digital Fool - 79
Yes, I double-checked my calculations when I saw DF ahead by such a ridiculous margin. But he has 12 players in the top 100 - three teams are tied for second place with 9 players in the top 100. Looks like we've got a new rabbit to chase this year, fellas. Can you do this for the keeper league as well just to see where we all stand. |
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